This Week In Wijnjewoude 2021: Week 32 A bit of a read

Week 32

I've been doing a lot of reading about global warming (apparently, we shouldn't use the misleading term "climate change" as it was only something dreamed up by a Republican trying to soften the implications).

But, like everybody else, we had such a normal week and weekend, that it is hard to imagine being able to do anything else that might change things.

TV News this week

Katwijk (Katwike) (Between Amsterdam and The Hague) was on the TV news during the week. A few years ago, there were major dyke-building works undertaken as it was seen as the "weakest link" in the protection afforded by the dykes in that southern region.

It made the news again after the release of the latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report. Mainly to raise the question "has it been made high enough?".

The video below shows the works in progress (without commentary) including a large underground carpark that was incorporated in the new dyke.

The TV news story wasn't being over-dramatic or sensational. The spokesperson (for Katwijk) was almost reassuring, but the question remains - is the sea level rise going to be 1 metre or 2? Is the temperature rise going to be 1.5 degrees or 2?

Building the new dyke

https://youtu.be/fwTxepG2TyA

From the Volkskrant (Literally, People's Newspaper)

(The Climate Adaptation Summit was held in the Netherlands in January 2021)

This newspaper story is related to that

At first sight, the Netherlands, host of the climate adaptation summit, is doing just fine, thanks to eight centuries of fighting against water. The Delta Works, high-tech storm surge barriers such as the Maeslantkering, fine-mesh freshwater management, a National Delta Program that is laid down by law and included in the national budget. We protect ourselves against wet feet for more than 1 billion Euros per year or 0.14 percent of GDP.

That is not self-evident, says Delta Commissioner Peter Glas. A quarter of the Netherlands is below sea level, and two-thirds would flood without measures. Ten million people live behind a dike, in the bathtub where two-thirds of GDP is earned. 'And then we also have a system of thousands of ditches, dikes and pumping stations, so that the Rhine water allows the potatoes to grow as far as Groningen, even in the driest years.'

From DutchNews.nl

This is related to the latest IPCC report...

‘Previous IPCC reports used veiled terms like ‘probably’ or ‘very likely’. We now call it ‘indisputable’ that current warming is caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.’ The report concludes that global warming could still be much higher this century than the 1.5C noted in in Paris, and that the least predictable factor, which will prove decisive, is human behaviour. ‘It is impossible for climate scientists to predict what will happen with politics and the economy,’ climate researcher Bart van den Hurk of Deltares, also one of the authors of the report, told NU.nl. ‘The biggest factor of uncertainty is future greenhouse gas emissions.

And what is new compared to the previous major IPCC report is that we’ve also worked out a scenario that shows what it takes to keep the temperature increase below 1.5C.’ Read the Guardian’s article on the IPCC report Read Bloomberg’s article on the IPCC report The new scenarios place the average rise in sea levels at between several decimetres to just over a metre by the end of the century but the report’s authors say that a rise in sea levels approaching two metres by the end of this century ‘cannot be ruled out’.

Almost half of the Netherlands’ 17 million inhabitants live along its 350km coast or in regions which are below sea level. ‘Climate change is something that concerns us all,’ Van den Hurk told the Volkskrant. ‘It’s not something from far that is far removed, in space or time. Every continent has regions which are facing major changes. I hope people pick up on that now.’ Sigrid Kaag, Dutch foreign affairs minister and leader of Liberal party D66, said in a reaction that hers is the last generation of politicians who can protect our way of life. ‘It is now or never,’ she said. ‘We need to implement the EU’s climate change package as fast as we can, and there should be a leadership role for the Netherlands.’ Prime minister Mark Rutte said the new report highlights how important it is that the EU meet targets set for 2030 and 2040. ‘This is of absolute importance to the cabinet and most of all to the parties forming a new government,’ he said.

Floods

The KNMI meteorological office is taking part in an international research project to determine if the recent heavy rainfall and floods in Limburg, Germany, Belgium and Luxemburg are linked to climate change. The research is being carried out together with experts from World Weather Attribution and from the other affected countries, the KNMI said. Some 26% of the Netherlands is below sea level and a further 29% is susceptible to river flooding. The Dutch coast is protected by a complicated system of dykes, seawalls and sluices built after the devastating floods of 1953 which left over 1,800 people dead.

Sea level

Aimée Slangen of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (Nioz) and another of the report’s authors, said that while the sea level forecasts do not differ much from the 2013 report, ‘we can now make concrete what the expected contribution of the melting of the Antarctica ice will be for various greenhouse gas scenarios’. ‘The melting of Antarctica is particularly relevant in norther Europe because of the effect of gravity,’ she said. ‘The meltwater from the South Pole on our side of the world causes an extra rise in the sea level 10%, on top of the global rise.’ This means that the Netherlands will be faced with high water every two to 10 years and that sea sluices will have to close much more often than at present to prevent flooding from the sea, she said.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:

and more from the Volkskrant

But even though we live in the safest delta in the world, we can't sit back, warns Glas. Sea level rise (with warming to 2 degrees 1 to 2 meters in 2100), extreme weather and drought can also become a problem for us. That is why the Delta Policy was adjusted ten years ago. 'No longer reacting to the disasters of yesterday or the day before yesterday, but looking three generations ahead. Moving along with the developments.'

The cost outweighs the benefit in the fight against water, so budgets must be maintained. The Delta Fund (more than 18 billion euros) can move forward until 2034, but must continue after that. Until 2050, at least 1,300 of the 3,700 kilometers of 'primary flood defences' will have to be overhauled. Another concern of Glas concerns spatial planning, in which water safety increasingly has to compete with housing, agriculture and nature.

But can we technically master challenges such as sea level rise? 'It's no problem up to 2 meters,' says Bas Jonkman, professor of integrated hydraulic engineering at TU Delft. Adapting storm surge barriers, strengthening dunes and dikes and building mega pumps to discharge river water into the sea will go a long way. 'Count on 1 billion euros extra per meter of sea level rise per year. We can afford that just fine.'

If the sea level rise will be much more than 2 meters (the worst forecasts are 3 meters in 2200 and 5 meters in 2300), then you are talking about defensive 'forward land reclamation', floating cities, who knows a huge dam around the North Sea, radical solutions that we spread the development and costs over two centuries. It only ends, says Jonkman, 'when technology becomes so difficult and expensive that it no longer pays to keep our country afloat.' A scenario that is already a reality on low-lying islands in the Pacific.

Technical solutions

Dutch hydraulic engineers are increasingly working with nature in their technical solutions (Building with Nature). Sustainable, 'soft' solutions such as the construction of protective dunes and salt marshes, or the famous sand motor, an invention that uses current and wind for coastal reinforcement and is now also being used in England. But, says Delta Commissioner Glas, 'the maxim is: soft where possible, hard where necessary.'

According to Tim van Hattum, climate program leader at Wageningen University & Research, the Netherlands should use 'natural solutions' on a large scale for adaptation, such as rewetting peat meadows and greening cities. He refers to Room for the River, a project that offered room for new nature after the high waters of the 1990s by widening riverbeds and dyke relocations. 'The Netherlands could play a pioneering role in this. Our delta as a lab for innovative climate adaptation.'

International leading

The Dutch adaptation approach has long been an international leader. Dutch engineers and dredgers are active all over the world, protecting metropolises such as New York, Jakarta and Guangzhou from the sea. And Bangladesh set up its own Delta Plan with Dutch help, in which, in addition to coastal protection and river management, the livelihood of the poor rural population is central.

Still, it is to be hoped that the Netherlands will not turn the top (Summit meeting) in The Hague into a sales pitch, says Dircke van Arcadis. 'That is not appreciated internationally. Monday is not about our export markets, rich countries such as China, Singapore and the US, but about the poor countries where the biggest blows fall.'

Moreover, adaptation is not a ready-made growth market. Aid and profit are intertwined, and most projects are financed by development banks and donors. The rescue of a sinking Jakarta will cost tens of billions, but no one knows who will pay for it. The market will only take off when institutional investors such as banks and pension funds start to see the benefits of adaptation projects.

That even applies to the Netherlands, says Dirkke. We are world champions in water management and pensions, but we rarely bring them together. 'It's as if we've forgotten that we already combined flood risk management with an earning model, agricultural land, during the 17th century reclamation. That's why Katwijk's parking dyke is so beautiful.

Press Releases from the Climate Adaptation Conference

https://www.cas2021.com/outcomes/documents/media-articles/2021/01/26/cas-2021-wrap-up

So, sorry about that, if you took the time to read it...

Now to more mundane things..

Janny organised our work this week so that we could go to our holiday house in Dokkum from Tuesday afternoon til Thursday evening. Then to prepare for the "Family Camping Weekend" at our place.

Photos from Dokkum:

I tried an experiment to see if I could do some of my bookkeeping while I'm away on the boat (hopefully later this year).

It seems that I can, with a little help from my secretary... (I do need good wifi - which we can arrange with Janny's "Unlimited Data Subscription").